Dit vereist van inlichtingendiensten begrip voor en inlevingsvermogen in het werk van de beleidsmaker en besluitvormer. The second part is a deep understanding as to why it is happening and the various motivations behind any parties involved. These range from critical thinking skills to varying up your approach when it comes to greater problem solving and considering every item of evidence available to you. Other mistakes include assuming your opponent will treat facts the same way as you (mirror imaging) or assess situations like you (transferred judgement). I choć czytałam je z dużym zainteresowaniem, to mózg mi parował w przyswajaniu tego wszystkiego i próbie przekonwertowania na moje życie codzienne.

As a general rule it is the explanatory hypothesis with the least evidence against it that is most likely to be the best one for us to adopt. They gather information - often contradictory or incomplete - and, with it, they build the most accurate possible image of the world.Brilliant, lucid and thought-provoking' Christopher Andrew, author of The Defence of the Realm: The Authorized History of MI5From the former director of GCHQ, learn the methodology used by the British intelligence agencies to reach judgements, establish the right level of confidence and act decisively. The author offers a nice, four-part critical thinking approach in the first section of the book and warns about cognitive biases in the second section.

The Bayesian method of reasoning therefore involves adjusting our prior degree of belief in a hypothesis on receipt to form a posterior degree of belief in it.It is not a glamourous job and often involves long hours watching and waiting for a target or asset to make a move. In summary, one finds valuable reflections about both very important and very actual topics about humans in cyberspace in this book; that alone is worth the read.

I like the way Omand's book uses the logics of intelligence to foster critical, scientific modes of inquiry for everyone. A well-studied lesson of the dangers of misinterpreting complex situations is the "security dilemma" when rearmament steps taken by one nation with purely defensive intent trigger fears in a potential adversary. Intelligence agencies have learned more than most the lesson that strong partnerships add value,” aldus Omand. Als rechtgeaard inlichtingenman met een wiskundige en academische inslag, onderstreept Omand het belang van “a systematic way of unpacking the process of arriving at judgements and establishing the appropriately level of confidence in them” (9).Behalve aan het werk van inlichtingendiensten, besteedt Omand in het laatste deel van zijn boek uitvoerig aandacht aan de verstrekkende, nadelige politieke en maatschappelijke gevolgen van de informatierevolutie.