Making Sense of a United Ireland: Should it happen? How might it happen?

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Privately, officials in Dublin say the Irish government will not push for a vote if there are any signs of a resurgent loyalist paramilitarism in the North or South. Explaining Northern Ireland devoted two of its chapters to these competing and irreconcilable Marxist schools of thought, from the “Green” or anti-imperialist Marxism represented by the group People’s Democracy to the “revisionist” Marxism of the British and Irish Communist Organization and the Workers’ Party. The book’s treatment of figures such as Michael Farrell, Eamonn McCann, Paul Bew, and Henry Patterson, whose writings were highly influential in shaping perceptions of Northern Ireland, was tinged with sympathy — unsurprisingly so, given O’Leary’s past identifications with the Left. That said, the authors viewed revolutionary theories of change with barely concealed contempt. A Guide to Action I am just an occasional visitor to Ireland for holidays and academic conferences, but I try to be sensitive and informed as I travel and encounter scenes in the landscape that relate to the historical struggle to stay alive in a land which offered little comfort. Sadly, holiday travel has been brought to an end for us by cessation of the pet passport scheme with the EU.

Northern Irish citizens are allowed to apply for Irish passports and, if the UK Government agreed, that Good Friday Agreement arrangement could be adapted for those wanting British passports. An independent Scotland and a united Ireland – both in the European Union – will peacefully resolve the rancours which now trouble both countries. Both are certainties which must be grasped by the UK government. According to O’Leary, there will still be a “Briti Protestants have been more likely to leave to take university degrees in Great Britain – and not return – especially when university tuition was free. It is a plausible story, but it is difficult to estimate the flows and their endurance. What is clear is that Northern universities have cultural Catholic pluralities or majorities in their student bodies. Since the last quarter of the 19th century such Catholics have mostly voted for nationalist parties with platforms that favour an autonomous or independent and united Ireland. Today the largest of these parties are Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP). Not everyone who votes Sinn Féin or SDLP will vote for Irish reunification if and when the Northern referendum happens. Like everyone with a vote they will want to know what is on offer and what the benefits and costs are, both for themselves and their families and for their peoples. But cultural Catholics will have a choice, and their votes will matter – with increasingly decisive importance over the rest of this decade. By 2030, as I shall try to show, the decision will be theirs to make.Its cultural Catholic population – those who are Catholic or come from a predominantly Catholic family formation – now outnumber cultural Protestants. Since the last quarter of the nineteenth century, such Catholics have mostly voted for nationalist parties with platforms that favour an autonomous or independent and united Ireland. Today, the largest of these parties are Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP). Tóibín then cites a unionist who explains his opposition to the 1985 Anglo-Irish agreement on the basis that the Dublin government “suddenly had a say in the affairs of Northern Ireland, but no one in the north could vote to remove the Dublin government” and that this “opposition to arbitrary authority was at the very heart of Protestant identity”. Of course, the considerable irony, which Tóibín misses entirely, is that the London government has a major say in the affairs of Northern Ireland (such as forcing Brexit on a region that voted against it), and nobody in the north can vote to remove them either.

If Model 2 is adopted (it is explained persuasively why other models, such as a federal Ireland of four provinces or 32 counties, are unlikely), O’Leary points out that there are still ways to accommodate unionists, although he prefers Model 1. In either Model 1 or 2, unionists could be offered guaranteed power-sharing provisions in Dublin. As one-sixth to one-seventh of Ireland’s population, O’Leary explains, they would enjoy more clout in a united Ireland’s government than they ever did or could in the United Kingdom’s.Unionists will need someone to fight on their behalf if Irish reunification happens, said the former Royal Irish Regiment captain. “That has to be me.” The mediation and resolution of current difficulties will require great vision and present many challenges.